Bashman Column on Oral Argument as a Predictor of Affirmance

A recent piece in the Legal Intelligencer by Howard Bashman examines the issue of what denial of oral argument means for the likelihood of a reversal. He’s exactly right (the answer is “dismal” but not impossible) and for the right reasons (multifarious factors go into deciding an appeal). 

I would add, though, that the main reason for being denied oral argument in the federal appellate courts is that the case has been tracked in a way that gets less process and less Article III judge attention overall.

The column is certainly worth a read.